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Correlation
of values
-58%
In sync
of periods
48%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
242
These move in the same direction about 48% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~34% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Avg Hourly Earnings moves ~13 months before NZD/USD Exchange Rate
Watch Avg Hourly Earnings for an early read on NZD/USD Exchange Rate.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
48.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-58%
Based on values
95% CI
-66% → -49%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
242 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
242
13,869
Normalized
242
13,869
Prepared
242
665
Aligned
242
242
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
34.1%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
242
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+13 months
Correlation at this shift
-65%
+7% stronger than no-shift baseline
NZD/USD Exchange Rate shifted 13 months earlier. Reads: "Does Avg Hourly Earnings today line up with NZD/USD Exchange Rate 13 months from now?"
229 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-58%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+13 months
-65%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-10%
109 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-12%
128 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
423
A: 0 / B: 423
Series A
Avg Hourly Earnings
CES0500000003
FRED · 242 raw → 242 prepared
Series B
NZD/USD Exchange Rate
DEXUSNZ
FRED · 13,869 raw → 665 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0095
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.9528
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-ces0500000003_fred-dexusnz_monthly_5y