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Correlation
of values
-60%
In sync
of periods
49%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
245
These move in the same direction about 49% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~36% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Avg Hourly Earnings moves ~13 months before NZD/USD Exchange Rate
Watch Avg Hourly Earnings for an early read on NZD/USD Exchange Rate.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
49%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-60%
Based on values
95% CI
-67% → -51%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
245 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
245
13,941
Normalized
245
13,941
Prepared
245
668
Aligned
245
245
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
36%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
245
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+13 months
Correlation at this shift
-66%
+7% stronger than no-shift baseline
NZD/USD Exchange Rate shifted 13 months earlier. Reads: "Does Avg Hourly Earnings today line up with NZD/USD Exchange Rate 13 months from now?"
232 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-60%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+13 months
-66%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-8%
111 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-12%
129 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
423
A: 0 / B: 423
Series A
Avg Hourly Earnings
CES0500000003
FRED · 245 raw → 245 prepared
Series B
NZD/USD Exchange Rate
DEXUSNZ
FRED · 13,941 raw → 668 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0096
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.9543
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-ces0500000003_fred-dexusnz_monthly_5y