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Correlation
of values
-71%
In sync
of periods
47%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
244
These move in the same direction about 47% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~50% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
EUR/USD Exchange Rate moves ~15 months before Avg Hourly Earnings
Watch EUR/USD Exchange Rate for an early read on Avg Hourly Earnings.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
47%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-71%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
244 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
244
6,896
Normalized
244
6,896
Prepared
244
331
Aligned
244
244
Invalid removed
Likely range
R²(i)
50%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
244
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-15 months
Correlation at this shift
-76%
+5% stronger than no-shift baseline
EUR/USD Exchange Rate shifted 15 months later. Reads: "Does Avg Hourly Earnings today line up with EUR/USD Exchange Rate 15 months ago?"
229 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-71%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-15 months
-76%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-5%
109 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-11%
132 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
87
A: 0 / B: 87
Series A
Avg Hourly Earnings
CES0500000003
FRED · 244 raw → 244 prepared
Series B
EUR/USD Exchange Rate
DEXUSEU
FRED · 6,896 raw → 331 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0189
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.7305
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-ces0500000003_fred-dexuseu_monthly_5y