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Correlation
of values
-19%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
242
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~4% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
USD/TWD Exchange Rate moves ~18 months before Avg Hourly Earnings
Watch USD/TWD Exchange Rate for an early read on Avg Hourly Earnings.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-19%
Based on values
95% CI
-31% → -7%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
242 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
242
10,398
Normalized
242
10,398
Prepared
242
512
Aligned
242
242
Invalid removed
R²(i)
3.7%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.01
Statistical confidence
Data points
242
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
-32%
+13% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/TWD Exchange Rate shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does Avg Hourly Earnings today line up with USD/TWD Exchange Rate 18 months ago?"
224 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-19%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
-32%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+17%
112 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-3%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-5%
123 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
270
A: 0 / B: 270
Series A
Avg Hourly Earnings
CES0500000003
FRED · 242 raw → 242 prepared
Series B
USD/TWD Exchange Rate
DEXTAUS
FRED · 10,398 raw → 512 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0582
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
32.4313
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-ces0500000003_fred-dextaus_monthly_5y