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Correlation
of values
+85%
In sync
of periods
56%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
242
These move in the same direction about 56% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~72% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
56.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+85%
Based on values
95% CI
+81% → +88%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
242 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
242
13,884
Normalized
242
13,884
Prepared
242
665
Aligned
242
242
Invalid removed
R²(i)
72.2%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
242
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+85%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
242 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+85%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+85%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+6%
125 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+62%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-27%
110 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
423
A: 0 / B: 423
Series A
Avg Hourly Earnings
CES0500000003
FRED · 242 raw → 242 prepared
Series B
USD/SEK Exchange Rate
DEXSDUS
FRED · 13,884 raw → 665 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
7
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.2465
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.6462
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-ces0500000003_fred-dexsdus_monthly_5y