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Correlation
of values
+75%
In sync
of periods
48%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
245
These move in the same direction about 48% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~56% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
USD/MXN Exchange Rate moves ~18 months before Avg Hourly Earnings
Watch USD/MXN Exchange Rate for an early read on Avg Hourly Earnings.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
48%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+75%
Based on values
95% CI
+69% → +80%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
245 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
245
8,225
Normalized
245
8,225
Prepared
245
394
Aligned
245
245
Invalid removed
R²(i)
56%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
245
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
+81%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/MXN Exchange Rate shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does Avg Hourly Earnings today line up with USD/MXN Exchange Rate 18 months ago?"
227 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+75%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
+81%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+33%
107 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+93%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-28%
131 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
149
A: 0 / B: 149
Series A
Avg Hourly Earnings
CES0500000003
FRED · 245 raw → 245 prepared
Series B
USD/MXN Exchange Rate
DEXMXUS
FRED · 8,225 raw → 394 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
9
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.5353
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.6497
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-ces0500000003_fred-dexmxus_monthly_5y