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CEG vs FFederal DebtConstellation Energy Corporation Common Stock (CEG) vs Federal Debt
Correlation
of % moves
+44%
In sync
of periods
71%
History
monthsmonths · through 2025-10
15
These move in the same direction about 71% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~19% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Federal Debt moves ~4 months before CEG
Watch Federal Debt for an early read on CEG.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
71.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+44%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-12% → +79%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
15 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,080
240
Normalized
1,080
240
Prepared
52
240
Aligned
15
15
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
19.1%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
15
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -4 to 4 months.
Selected shift
-4 months
Correlation at this shift
+59%
+15% stronger than no-shift baseline
Federal Debt shifted 4 months later. Reads: "Does Constellation Energy Corporation Common Stock (CEG) today line up with Federal Debt 4 months ago?"
10 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+44%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-4 months
+59%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
262
A: 37 / B: 225
Series A
Constellation Energy Corporation Common Stock (CEG)
CEG
Stock · 1,080 raw → 52 prepared
Series B
Federal Debt
GFDEBTN
FRED · 240 raw → 240 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0215
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0137
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-gfdebtn_stock-ceg_monthly_5y