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Coeur Mining, Inc. (CDE) vs Nonfarm Payrolls
Correlation
of % moves
-40%
In sync
of periods
37%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
60
These move in the same direction about 37% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~16% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
CDE moves ~2 months before Nonfarm Payrolls
Watch CDE for an early read on Nonfarm Payrolls.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
37.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-40%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-59% → -16%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
60 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,255
1,049
Normalized
1,255
1,049
Prepared
61
1,049
Aligned
60
60
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
15.9%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.01
Statistical confidence
Data points
60
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+2 months
Correlation at this shift
-48%
+8% stronger than no-shift baseline
Nonfarm Payrolls shifted 2 months earlier. Reads: "Does Coeur Mining, Inc. (CDE) today line up with Nonfarm Payrolls 2 months from now?"
57 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-40%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+2 months
-48%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-22%
21 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-36%
37 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
990
A: 1 / B: 989
Series A
Coeur Mining, Inc. (CDE)
CDE
Stock · 1,255 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
Nonfarm Payrolls
PAYEMS
FRED · 1,049 raw → 1,049 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0042
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0015
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-payems_stock-cde_monthly_5y