SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
+9%
of values
In sync
48%
of periods
History
711
months · through 2026-03
These move in the same direction about 48% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~1% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Time Series
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Continued Jobless Claims moves ~16 months before Bank Reserves
Watch Continued Jobless Claims for an early read on Bank Reserves.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
48.2%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+9%
Based on values
95% CI
+2% → +16%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
711 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
807
3,094
Normalized
807
3,094
Prepared
807
712
Aligned
711
711
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
R²(i)
0.8%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points
711
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-16 months
Correlation at this shift
+22%
+13% stronger than no-shift baseline
Continued Jobless Claims shifted 16 months later. Reads: "Does Bank Reserves today line up with Continued Jobless Claims 16 months ago?"
695 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+9%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-16 months
+22%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+86%
65 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+40%
60 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-33%
124 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
97
A: 96 / B: 1
Series A
Bank Reserves
TOTRESNS
FRED · 807 raw → 807 prepared
Series B
Continued Jobless Claims
CCSA
FRED · 3,094 raw → 712 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
18
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
120.7553
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2641533.3603
Linear regression intercept.
Saved yesterday · ID: fred-ccsa_fred-totresns_5y