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Correlation
of values
-22%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-34
1,234
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~5% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate moves ~8 weeks before Continued Jobless Claims
Watch 5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate for an early read on Continued Jobless Claims.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-22%
Based on values
95% CI
-27% → -17%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,234 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
5,925
3,112
Normalized
5,925
3,112
Prepared
1,237
3,112
Aligned
1,234
1,234
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
1,234
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
+8 weeks
Correlation at this shift
-29%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
Continued Jobless Claims shifted 8 weeks earlier. Reads: "Does 5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate today line up with Continued Jobless Claims 8 weeks from now?"
1,226 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-22%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+8 weeks
-29%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+57%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,881
A: 3 / B: 1878
Series A
5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate
T5YIFR
FRED · 5,925 raw → 1,237 prepared
Series B
Continued Jobless Claims
CCSA
FRED · 3,112 raw → 3,112 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
15
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-1572642.5685
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
6580589.1532
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-ccsa_fred-t5yifr_weekly_5y