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Correlation
of values
-38%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-21
1,221
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~14% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
5Y Breakeven Inflation moves ~7 weeks before Continued Jobless Claims
Watch 5Y Breakeven Inflation for an early read on Continued Jobless Claims.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50.2%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-38%
Based on values
95% CI
-42% → -33%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,221 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
5,862
3,099
Normalized
5,862
3,099
Prepared
1,224
3,099
Aligned
1,221
1,221
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
14.2%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,221
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
+7 weeks
Correlation at this shift
-43%
+5% stronger than no-shift baseline
Continued Jobless Claims shifted 7 weeks earlier. Reads: "Does 5Y Breakeven Inflation today line up with Continued Jobless Claims 7 weeks from now?"
1,214 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-38%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+7 weeks
-43%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+56%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-62%
8 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,881
A: 3 / B: 1878
Series A
5Y Breakeven Inflation
T5YIE
FRED · 5,862 raw → 1,224 prepared
Series B
Continued Jobless Claims
CCSA
FRED · 3,099 raw → 3,099 prepared
Sign agreement
98.9%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
13
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-1528694.2600
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
6053349.3185
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-ccsa_fred-t5yie_weekly_5y