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Correlation
of values
+21%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-21
2,316
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~4% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
49.7%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+21%
Based on values
95% CI
+17% → +25%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
2,316 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
11,110
3,099
Normalized
11,110
3,099
Prepared
2,319
3,099
Aligned
2,316
2,316
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
4.4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
2,316
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+21%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
2,316 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+21%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+21%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
786
A: 3 / B: 783
Series A
10Y-3M Yield Spread
T10Y3M
FRED · 11,110 raw → 2,319 prepared
Series B
Continued Jobless Claims
CCSA
FRED · 3,099 raw → 3,099 prepared
Sign agreement
88.8%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
19
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
290126.9631
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2439978.2890
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-ccsa_fred-t10y3m_weekly_5y