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Correlation
of values
+21%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-33
2,328
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~4% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+21%
Based on values
95% CI
+17% → +25%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
2,328 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
11,169
3,111
Normalized
11,169
3,111
Prepared
2,331
3,111
Aligned
2,328
2,328
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
2,328
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+21%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
2,328 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+21%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+21%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-85%
5 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
786
A: 3 / B: 783
Series A
10Y-3M Yield Spread
T10Y3M
FRED · 11,169 raw → 2,331 prepared
Series B
Continued Jobless Claims
CCSA
FRED · 3,111 raw → 3,111 prepared
Sign agreement
88.9%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
23
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
292430.7663
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2432045.3639
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-ccsa_fred-t10y3m_weekly_5y