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Correlation
of values
+25%
In sync
of periods
51%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-21
2,608
These move in the same direction about 51% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~6% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50.9%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+25%
Based on values
95% CI
+21% → +28%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
2,608 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
12,501
3,099
Normalized
12,501
3,099
Prepared
2,611
3,099
Aligned
2,608
2,608
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
6.1%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
2,608
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+25%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
2,608 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+25%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+25%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
494
A: 3 / B: 491
Series A
10Y-2Y Yield Spread
T10Y2Y
FRED · 12,501 raw → 2,611 prepared
Series B
Continued Jobless Claims
CCSA
FRED · 3,099 raw → 3,099 prepared
Sign agreement
83.5%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
43
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
441467.8117
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2501470.7922
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-ccsa_fred-t10y2y_weekly_5y