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Correlation
of values
+25%
In sync
of periods
49%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-21
1,691
These move in the same direction about 49% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~6% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
St. Louis Financial Stress Index moves ~7 weeks before Continued Jobless Claims
Watch St. Louis Financial Stress Index for an early read on Continued Jobless Claims.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
48.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+25%
Based on values
95% CI
+21% → +30%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,691 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
1,692
3,099
Normalized
1,692
3,099
Prepared
1,692
3,099
Aligned
1,691
1,691
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
6.4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,691
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
+7 weeks
Correlation at this shift
+37%
+12% stronger than no-shift baseline
Continued Jobless Claims shifted 7 weeks earlier. Reads: "Does St. Louis Financial Stress Index today line up with Continued Jobless Claims 7 weeks from now?"
1,684 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+25%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+7 weeks
+37%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-70%
6 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,409
A: 1 / B: 1408
Series A
St. Louis Financial Stress Index
STLFSI4
FRED · 1,692 raw → 1,692 prepared
Series B
Continued Jobless Claims
CCSA
FRED · 3,099 raw → 3,099 prepared
Sign agreement
35.3%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
18
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
500207.0271
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2922497.5206
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-ccsa_fred-stlfsi4_weekly_5y