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Correlation
of values
-16%
In sync
of periods
52%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-21
520
These move in the same direction about 52% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~2% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
52.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-16%
Based on values
95% CI
-24% → -7%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
520 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
2,513
3,099
Normalized
2,513
3,099
Prepared
523
3,099
Aligned
520
520
Invalid removed
R²(i)
2.4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
520
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-16%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
520 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-16%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-16%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+56%
27 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-25%
12 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-12%
41 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,582
A: 3 / B: 2579
Series A
S&P 500
SP500
FRED · 2,513 raw → 523 prepared
Series B
Continued Jobless Claims
CCSA
FRED · 3,099 raw → 3,099 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
6
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-377.5790
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
4293518.2785
Linear regression intercept.
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