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Correlation
of values
+19%
In sync
of periods
55%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
710
These move in the same direction about 55% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~4% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities moves ~4 months before Continued Jobless Claims
Watch Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities for an early read on Continued Jobless Claims.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
55%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+19%
Based on values
95% CI
+12% → +26%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
710 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
3,111
710
Normalized
3,111
710
Prepared
716
710
Aligned
710
710
Invalid removed
R²(i)
4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
710
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-4 months
Correlation at this shift
+34%
+15% stronger than no-shift baseline
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities shifted 4 months later. Reads: "Does Continued Jobless Claims today line up with Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities 4 months ago?"
706 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+19%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-4 months
+34%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-46%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-45%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-21%
13 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
6
A: 6 / B: 0
Series A
Continued Jobless Claims
CCSA
FRED · 3,111 raw → 716 prepared
Series B
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
RECPROUSM156N
FRED · 710 raw → 710 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
18
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.0722
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-ccsa_fred-recprousm156n_monthly_5y