Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Correlation
of values
+19%
In sync
of periods
54%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
707
These move in the same direction about 54% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~4% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities moves ~4 months before Continued Jobless Claims
Watch Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities for an early read on Continued Jobless Claims.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
53.9%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+19%
Based on values
95% CI
+12% → +26%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
707 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
3,099
707
Normalized
3,099
707
Prepared
713
707
Aligned
707
707
Invalid removed
R²(i)
3.7%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
707
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-4 months
Correlation at this shift
+35%
+15% stronger than no-shift baseline
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities shifted 4 months later. Reads: "Does Continued Jobless Claims today line up with Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities 4 months ago?"
703 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+19%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-4 months
+35%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-61%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+1%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-79%
20 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
6
A: 6 / B: 0
Series A
Continued Jobless Claims
CCSA
FRED · 3,099 raw → 713 prepared
Series B
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
RECPROUSM156N
FRED · 707 raw → 707 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
20
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.7316
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-ccsa_fred-recprousm156n_monthly_5y