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Correlation
of values
+16%
In sync
of periods
46%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
712
These move in the same direction about 46% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~2% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Continued Jobless Claims moves ~18 months before PCE Price Index
Watch Continued Jobless Claims for an early read on PCE Price Index.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
46.1%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+16%
Based on values
95% CI
+8% → +23%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
712 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
808
3,099
Normalized
808
3,099
Prepared
808
713
Aligned
712
712
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
2.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
712
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
+21%
+5% stronger than no-shift baseline
Continued Jobless Claims shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does PCE Price Index today line up with Continued Jobless Claims 18 months ago?"
694 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+16%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
+21%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+9%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
+10%
16 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
97
A: 96 / B: 1
Series A
PCE Price Index
PCEPI
FRED · 808 raw → 808 prepared
Series B
Continued Jobless Claims
CCSA
FRED · 3,099 raw → 713 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
18
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
7953.3797
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2192384.9278
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-ccsa_fred-pcepi_monthly_5y