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Correlation
of values
-29%
In sync
of periods
41%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
305
These move in the same direction about 41% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~8% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
40.9%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-29%
Based on values
95% CI
-39% → -18%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
305 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
3,099
305
Normalized
3,099
305
Prepared
713
305
Aligned
305
305
Invalid removed
R²(i)
8.4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
305
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-29%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
305 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-29%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-29%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+73%
29 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-21%
51 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-47%
116 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
408
A: 408 / B: 0
Series A
Continued Jobless Claims
CCSA
FRED · 3,099 raw → 713 prepared
Series B
Job Openings
JTSJOL
FRED · 305 raw → 305 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
6
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0003
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
6415.8857
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-ccsa_fred-jtsjol_monthly_5y