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Correlation
of values
-20%
In sync
of periods
43%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
714
These move in the same direction about 43% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~4% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
43%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-20%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
714 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
864
3,103
Normalized
864
3,103
Prepared
864
714
Aligned
714
714
Invalid removed
Likely range
R²(i)
4%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
714
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-20%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
714 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-20%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-20%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+3%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-22%
22 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
150
A: 150 / B: 0
Series A
Fed Funds Rate
FEDFUNDS
FRED · 864 raw → 864 prepared
Series B
Continued Jobless Claims
CCSA
FRED · 3,103 raw → 714 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
18
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-81296.7955
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
3128078.8358
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-ccsa_fred-fedfunds_monthly_5y