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Correlation
of values
-19%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-21
1,064
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~3% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Continued Jobless Claims moves ~12 weeks before US Dollar Index
Watch Continued Jobless Claims for an early read on US Dollar Index.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
49.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-19%
Based on values
95% CI
-24% → -13%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,064 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
3,099
5,121
Normalized
3,099
5,121
Prepared
3,099
1,066
Aligned
1,064
1,064
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
3.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,064
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
+12 weeks
Correlation at this shift
-25%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
US Dollar Index shifted 12 weeks earlier. Reads: "Does Continued Jobless Claims today line up with US Dollar Index 12 weeks from now?"
1,052 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-19%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+12 weeks
-25%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-68%
11 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,037
A: 2035 / B: 2
Series A
Continued Jobless Claims
CCSA
FRED · 3,099 raw → 3,099 prepared
Series B
US Dollar Index
DTWEXAFEGS
FRED · 5,121 raw → 1,066 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
8
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
104.4645
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-ccsa_fred-dtwexafegs_weekly_5y