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Correlation
of values
-19%
In sync
of periods
49%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-21
3,099
These move in the same direction about 49% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~4% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
48.7%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-19%
Based on values
95% CI
-23% → -16%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
3,099 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
16,092
3,099
Normalized
16,092
3,099
Prepared
3,362
3,099
Aligned
3,099
3,099
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
3.8%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
3,099
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-19%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
3,099 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-19%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-19%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
263
A: 263 / B: 0
Series A
1Y Treasury Yield
DGS1
FRED · 16,092 raw → 3,362 prepared
Series B
Continued Jobless Claims
CCSA
FRED · 3,099 raw → 3,099 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
58
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-88340.3905
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
3166468.0776
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-ccsa_fred-dgs1_weekly_5y