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Correlation
of values
-22%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-21
1,221
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~5% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Continued Jobless Claims moves ~12 weeks before 10Y Real Yield
Watch Continued Jobless Claims for an early read on 10Y Real Yield.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-22%
Based on values
95% CI
-27% → -16%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,221 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
5,861
3,099
Normalized
5,861
3,099
Prepared
1,223
3,099
Aligned
1,221
1,221
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
4.8%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,221
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
-12 weeks
Correlation at this shift
-27%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
Continued Jobless Claims shifted 12 weeks later. Reads: "Does 10Y Real Yield today line up with Continued Jobless Claims 12 weeks ago?"
1,209 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-22%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-12 weeks
-27%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-65%
9 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,880
A: 2 / B: 1878
Series A
10Y Real Yield
DFII10
FRED · 5,861 raw → 1,223 prepared
Series B
Continued Jobless Claims
CCSA
FRED · 3,099 raw → 3,099 prepared
Sign agreement
83.6%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
13
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-499928.6350
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
3550308.7715
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-ccsa_fred-dfii10_weekly_5y