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Correlation
of values
-22%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-33
1,233
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~5% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Continued Jobless Claims moves ~12 weeks before 10Y Real Yield
Watch Continued Jobless Claims for an early read on 10Y Real Yield.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-22%
Based on values
95% CI
-28% → -17%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,233 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
5,920
3,111
Normalized
5,920
3,111
Prepared
1,236
3,111
Aligned
1,233
1,233
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
1,233
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
-12 weeks
Correlation at this shift
-28%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
Continued Jobless Claims shifted 12 weeks later. Reads: "Does 10Y Real Yield today line up with Continued Jobless Claims 12 weeks ago?"
1,221 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-22%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-12 weeks
-28%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+21%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,881
A: 3 / B: 1878
Series A
10Y Real Yield
DFII10
FRED · 5,920 raw → 1,236 prepared
Series B
Continued Jobless Claims
CCSA
FRED · 3,111 raw → 3,111 prepared
Sign agreement
83.8%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
13
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-507416.5144
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
3551794.8725
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-ccsa_fred-dfii10_weekly_5y