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Correlation
of values
+9%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-19
1,375
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~1% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Continued Jobless Claims moves ~12 weeks before USD/VES Exchange Rate
Watch Continued Jobless Claims for an early read on USD/VES Exchange Rate.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
49.6%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+9%
Based on values
95% CI
+4% → +14%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,375 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
3,097
6,606
Normalized
3,097
6,606
Prepared
3,097
1,376
Aligned
1,375
1,375
Invalid removed
R²(i)
0.8%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.01
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,375
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
+12 weeks
Correlation at this shift
+18%
+10% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/VES Exchange Rate shifted 12 weeks earlier. Reads: "Does Continued Jobless Claims today line up with USD/VES Exchange Rate 12 weeks from now?"
1,363 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+9%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+12 weeks
+18%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+11%
51 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-29%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-20%
191 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,723
A: 1722 / B: 1
Series A
Continued Jobless Claims
CCSA
FRED · 3,097 raw → 3,097 prepared
Series B
USD/VES Exchange Rate
DEXVZUS
FRED · 6,606 raw → 1,376 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
20
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0203
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
32859.8732
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-ccsa_fred-dexvzus_weekly_5y