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Correlation
of values
+16%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-34
1,442
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~3% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Continued Jobless Claims moves ~12 weeks before EUR/USD Exchange Rate
Watch Continued Jobless Claims for an early read on EUR/USD Exchange Rate.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+16%
Based on values
95% CI
+11% → +21%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,442 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
3,112
6,941
Normalized
3,112
6,941
Prepared
3,112
1,444
Aligned
1,442
1,442
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
3%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
1,442
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
+12 weeks
Correlation at this shift
+21%
+5% stronger than no-shift baseline
EUR/USD Exchange Rate shifted 12 weeks earlier. Reads: "Does Continued Jobless Claims today line up with EUR/USD Exchange Rate 12 weeks from now?"
1,430 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+16%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+12 weeks
+21%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+24%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-79%
7 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,672
A: 1670 / B: 2
Series A
Continued Jobless Claims
CCSA
FRED · 3,112 raw → 3,112 prepared
Series B
EUR/USD Exchange Rate
DEXUSEU
FRED · 6,941 raw → 1,444 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
20
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.1474
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-ccsa_fred-dexuseu_weekly_5y