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Correlation
of values
-17%
In sync
of periods
43%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-08
246
These move in the same direction about 43% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~3% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Avg Hourly Earnings moves ~18 months before Continued Jobless Claims
Watch Avg Hourly Earnings for an early read on Continued Jobless Claims.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
43%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-17%
Based on values
95% CI
-29% → -4%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
246 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
3,112
246
Normalized
3,112
246
Prepared
716
246
Aligned
246
246
Invalid removed
R²(i)
3%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.01
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
246
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
-23%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
Avg Hourly Earnings shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does Continued Jobless Claims today line up with Avg Hourly Earnings 18 months ago?"
228 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-17%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
-23%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+94%
96 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+97%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-27%
142 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
470
A: 470 / B: 0
Series A
Continued Jobless Claims
CCSA
FRED · 3,112 raw → 716 prepared
Series B
Avg Hourly Earnings
CES0500000003
FRED · 246 raw → 246 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
4
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
28.0645
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-ccsa_fred-ces0500000003_monthly_5y