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Carnival Corporation Ltd. (CCL) vs Consumer Sentiment
Correlation
of % moves
+49%
In sync
of periods
68%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
58
These move in the same direction about 68% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~24% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
67.9%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+49%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+27% → +67%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
58 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
671
Normalized
1,254
671
Prepared
60
671
Aligned
58
58
Invalid removed
R²(i)
24.3%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
58
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+49%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
57 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+49%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+49%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+6%
18 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+10%
20 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-52%
19 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
615
A: 2 / B: 613
Series A
Carnival Corporation Ltd. (CCL)
CCL
Stock · 1,254 raw → 60 prepared
Series B
Consumer Sentiment
UMCSENT
FRED · 671 raw → 671 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.2407
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0078
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: fred-umcsent_stock-ccl_monthly_5y