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Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (CBOE) vs 10-Year Real Interest Rate
Correlation
of % moves
-21%
In sync
of periods
46%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
60
These move in the same direction about 46% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~4% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
CBOE moves ~15 months before 10-Year Real Interest Rate
Watch CBOE for an early read on 10-Year Real Interest Rate.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
46%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-21%
Based on % moves
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
60 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
534
Normalized
1,254
534
Prepared
61
534
Aligned
60
60
Invalid removed
4%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
59
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+15 months
Correlation at this shift
+26%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
10-Year Real Interest Rate shifted 15 months earlier. Reads: "Does Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (CBOE) today line up with 10-Year Real Interest Rate 15 months from now?"
44 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-21%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+15 months
+26%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-44%
18 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-56%
9 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-42%
32 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
475
A: 1 / B: 474
Series A
Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (CBOE)
CBOE
Stock · 1,254 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
10-Year Real Interest Rate
REAINTRATREARAT10Y
FRED · 534 raw → 534 prepared
Sign agreement
96.7%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-1.0809
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0673
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-reaintratrearat10y_stock-cboe_monthly_5y