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Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (CBOE) vs Monetary Base
Correlation
of % moves
+30%
In sync
of periods
52%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
59
These move in the same direction about 52% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~9% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
CBOE moves ~4 months before Monetary Base
Watch CBOE for an early read on Monetary Base.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
52%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+30%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+5% → +52%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
59 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
811
Normalized
1,254
811
Prepared
61
811
Aligned
59
59
Invalid removed
R²(i)
9%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
58
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+4 months
Correlation at this shift
+37%
+7% stronger than no-shift baseline
Monetary Base shifted 4 months earlier. Reads: "Does Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (CBOE) today line up with Monetary Base 4 months from now?"
54 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+30%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+4 months
+37%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-2%
18 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-10%
12 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-31%
28 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
754
A: 2 / B: 752
Series A
Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (CBOE)
CBOE
Stock · 1,254 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
Monetary Base
BOGMBASE
FRED · 811 raw → 811 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
7
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0944
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0038
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-bogmbase_stock-cboe_monthly_5y