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Casey's General Stores Inc (CASY) vs Initial Jobless Claims
Correlation
of % moves
-14%
In sync
of periods
46%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-26
259
These move in the same direction about 46% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~2% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Swings around
Their relationship swings around — sometimes tight, sometimes loose. Don't trust a single snapshot.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
46%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-14%
Based on % moves
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
259 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
1,254
3,104
Normalized
1,254
3,104
Prepared
261
3,104
Aligned
259
259
Invalid removed
2%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
258
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-14%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
258 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-14%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-14%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+9%
58 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-23%
44 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-42%
138 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,847
A: 2 / B: 2845
Series A
Casey's General Stores Inc (CASY)
CASY
Stock · 1,254 raw → 261 prepared
Series B
Initial Jobless Claims
ICSA
FRED · 3,104 raw → 3,104 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
43
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.2341
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0010
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-icsa_stock-casy_weekly_5y