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Casey's General Stores Inc (CASY) vs CPI: Used Cars & Trucks
Correlation
of % moves
-20%
In sync
of periods
36%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
59
These move in the same direction about 36% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~4% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
CPI: Used Cars & Trucks moves ~15 months before CASY
Watch CPI: Used Cars & Trucks for an early read on CASY.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
36.2%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-20%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-44% → +6%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
59 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
880
Normalized
1,254
880
Prepared
60
880
Aligned
59
59
Invalid removed
R²(i)
4.2%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
59
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-15 months
Correlation at this shift
-28%
+7% stronger than no-shift baseline
CPI: Used Cars & Trucks shifted 15 months later. Reads: "Does Casey's General Stores Inc (CASY) today line up with CPI: Used Cars & Trucks 15 months ago?"
43 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-20%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-15 months
-28%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-36%
11 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-32%
10 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-31%
37 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
822
A: 1 / B: 821
Series A
Casey's General Stores Inc (CASY)
CASY
Stock · 1,254 raw → 60 prepared
Series B
CPI: Used Cars & Trucks
CUSR0000SETA02
FRED · 880 raw → 880 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0721
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0003
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: fred-cusr0000seta02_stock-casy_monthly_5y