SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move opposite each other about 36% of the time
Strong inverse
Strong enough to use as a signal — read the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Citigroup is a global financial powerhouse that orchestrates the movement of $5 trillion in daily transaction volume, serving as the essential connective tissue for the world's most complex multinational corporations. The firm remains a leader on the global stage, servicing 90% of the Fortune 500 through a proprietary network that includes direct membership to over 270 cash-clearing centers and a footprint that spans 94 countries. After a checkered history operating as an overly complex, disjointed firm, steps have been taken to streamline operations, resulting in organization across five segments: services, markets, banking, wealth, and US personal banking.
Market cap 220.3B · 226,000 employees
ICE BofA US High Yield Index Effective Yield
BAMLH0A0HYM2EY
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recent correlation (+6%) is 2.8σ from the long-run average of -81% — pair is behaving differently than usual.
Holds across regimes
Correlation is similar when markets rise (+26%) and fall (-12%) — reliable in both directions.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-81%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
752 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with ICE BofA US High Yield Index Effective Yield at original dates
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
-81%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
-83% → -78%
Likely range
R²
65.7%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
35.9%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
752
Deep
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
752 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,255
786
Normalized
1,255
786
Prepared
1,255
786
Aligned
752
752
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+26%
34 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-12%
29 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-69%
186 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
537
A: 503 / B: 34
Series A
Citigroup Inc.
C
Market cap 220.3B · 226,000 employees
Stock · 1,255 raw → 1,255 prepared
Series B
BAMLH0A0HYM2EY
FRED · 786 raw → 786 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
9
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0241
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
9.1560
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 hours ago · ID: fred-bamlh0a0hym2ey_stock-c_5y
BAMLH0A0HYM2EY
ICE BofA US High Yield Index Effective Yield
Strongest positive