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C vs FHY Bond SpreadCitigroup Inc. (C) vs HY Bond Spread
Correlation
of % moves
-55%
In sync
of periods
35%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-20
752
These move opposite each other about 35% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~31% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Mostly stable
The relationship drifts a little but stays in the same neighbourhood.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
35.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-55%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-60% → -50%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
752 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,254
786
Normalized
1,254
786
Prepared
1,254
786
Aligned
752
752
Invalid removed
R²(i)
30.6%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
752
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-55%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
751 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-55%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-55%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-10%
30 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-25%
33 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-70%
186 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
536
A: 502 / B: 34
Series A
Citigroup Inc. (C)
C
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Series B
HY Bond Spread
BAMLH0A0HYM2
FRED · 786 raw → 786 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
9
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.6622
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0002
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-bamlh0a0hym2_stock-c_daily_5y