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BURLINGTON STORES, INC. (BURL) vs Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
Correlation
of % moves
-30%
In sync
of periods
41%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
59
These move in the same direction about 41% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~9% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator moves ~5 months before BURL
Watch Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator for an early read on BURL.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
40.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-30%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-52% → -5%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
59 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,255
797
Normalized
1,255
797
Prepared
61
797
Aligned
59
59
Invalid removed
R²(i)
9.2%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points
59
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-5 months
Correlation at this shift
+36%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator shifted 5 months later. Reads: "Does BURLINGTON STORES, INC. (BURL) today line up with Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator 5 months ago?"
47 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-30%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-5 months
+36%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-25%
11 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+55%
9 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-71%
37 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
740
A: 2 / B: 738
Series A
BURLINGTON STORES, INC. (BURL)
BURL
Stock · 1,255 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
SAHMREALTIME
FRED · 797 raw → 797 prepared
Sign agreement
74.1%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
2
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.7456
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0052
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-sahmrealtime_stock-burl_monthly_5y