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BURLINGTON STORES, INC. (BURL) vs Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
Correlation
of % moves
-32%
In sync
of periods
38%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
58
These move in the same direction about 38% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~10% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
38%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-32%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-54% → -7%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
58 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,253
799
Normalized
1,253
799
Prepared
61
799
Aligned
58
58
Invalid removed
R²(i)
10%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
56
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-32%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
56 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-32%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-32%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-33%
10 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+21%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-76%
38 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
744
A: 3 / B: 741
Series A
BURLINGTON STORES, INC. (BURL)
BURL
Stock · 1,253 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
SAHMREALTIME
FRED · 799 raw → 799 prepared
Sign agreement
77.4%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
2
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.1841
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0029
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-sahmrealtime_stock-burl_monthly_5y