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Correlation
of % moves
-42%
In sync
of periods
39%
History
daysdays · through 2026-07-06
513
These move in the same direction about 39% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~18% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Mostly stable
The relationship drifts a little but stays in the same neighbourhood.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
39%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-42%
Based on % moves
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
513 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
730
9,223
Normalized
730
9,223
Prepared
730
9,223
Aligned
513
513
Invalid removed
18%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
512
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-42%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
512 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-42%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-42%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+1%
41 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+31%
44 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-58%
164 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
8,927
A: 217 / B: 8710
Series A
Bitcoin (BTC)
BTC
Crypto · 730 raw → 730 prepared
Series B
VIX
VIXCLS
FRED · 9,223 raw → 9,223 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
24
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-1.3003
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0006
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: crypto-btc_fred-vixcls_daily_5y