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Bitcoin (BTC) vs Consumer Sentiment
Correlation
of % moves
+26%
In sync
of periods
67%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
23
These move in the same direction about 67% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~7% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
BTC moves ~7 months before Consumer Sentiment
Watch BTC for an early read on Consumer Sentiment.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Swings around
Their relationship swings around — sometimes tight, sometimes loose. Don't trust a single snapshot.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
66.7%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+26%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-18% → +62%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
23 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
730
671
Normalized
730
671
Prepared
25
671
Aligned
23
23
Invalid removed
R²(i)
6.9%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
23
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 months.
Selected shift
+7 months
Correlation at this shift
+79%
+53% stronger than no-shift baseline
Consumer Sentiment shifted 7 months earlier. Reads: "Does Bitcoin (BTC) today line up with Consumer Sentiment 7 months from now?"
15 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+26%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+7 months
+79%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-43%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+21%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-26%
8 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
650
A: 2 / B: 648
Series A
Bitcoin (BTC)
BTC
Crypto · 730 raw → 25 prepared
Series B
Consumer Sentiment
UMCSENT
FRED · 671 raw → 671 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
4
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.1407
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0120
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: crypto-btc_fred-umcsent_monthly_5y