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Bitcoin (BTC) vs Total Vehicle Sales
Correlation
of % moves
-32%
In sync
of periods
45%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
23
These move in the same direction about 45% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~10% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Total Vehicle Sales moves ~11 months before BTC
Watch Total Vehicle Sales for an early read on BTC.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
45.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-32%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-65% → +12%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
23 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
730
603
Normalized
730
603
Prepared
25
603
Aligned
23
23
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
10.3%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
23
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 months.
Selected shift
-11 months
Correlation at this shift
-55%
+23% stronger than no-shift baseline
Total Vehicle Sales shifted 11 months later. Reads: "Does Bitcoin (BTC) today line up with Total Vehicle Sales 11 months ago?"
11 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-32%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-11 months
-55%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+13%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-73%
12 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
582
A: 2 / B: 580
Series A
Bitcoin (BTC)
BTC
Crypto · 730 raw → 25 prepared
Series B
Total Vehicle Sales
TOTALSA
FRED · 603 raw → 603 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
4
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.1414
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0011
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: crypto-btc_fred-totalsa_monthly_5y