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Correlation
of % moves
+41%
In sync
of periods
64%
History
daysdays · through 2026-09-08
499
These move in the same direction about 64% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~17% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Mostly stable
The relationship drifts a little but stays in the same neighbourhood.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
64%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+41%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+34% → +48%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
499 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
730
2,512
Normalized
730
2,512
Prepared
730
2,512
Aligned
499
499
Invalid removed
R²(i)
17%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
498
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+41%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
498 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+41%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+41%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+20%
93 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+18%
73 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-47%
83 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,244
A: 231 / B: 2013
Series A
Bitcoin (BTC)
BTC
Crypto · 730 raw → 730 prepared
Series B
S&P 500
SP500
FRED · 2,512 raw → 2,512 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
22
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.1495
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0006
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: crypto-btc_fred-sp500_daily_5y