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Bitcoin (BTC) vs 10-Year Real Interest Rate
Correlation
of % moves
+27%
In sync
of periods
54%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
25
These move in the same direction about 54% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~7% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
10-Year Real Interest Rate moves ~13 months before BTC
Watch 10-Year Real Interest Rate for an early read on BTC.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
54.2%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+27%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-15% → +61%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
25 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
730
533
Normalized
730
533
Prepared
25
533
Aligned
25
25
Invalid removed
R²(i)
7.2%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
25
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -14 to 14 months.
Selected shift
-13 months
Correlation at this shift
-47%
+20% stronger than no-shift baseline
10-Year Real Interest Rate shifted 13 months later. Reads: "Does Bitcoin (BTC) today line up with 10-Year Real Interest Rate 13 months ago?"
11 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+27%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-13 months
-47%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+78%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+16%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-52%
11 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
508
A: 0 / B: 508
Series A
Bitcoin (BTC)
BTC
Crypto · 730 raw → 25 prepared
Series B
10-Year Real Interest Rate
REAINTRATREARAT10Y
FRED · 533 raw → 533 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
4
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.2615
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0121
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: crypto-btc_fred-reaintratrearat10y_monthly_5y