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Bitcoin (BTC) vs PPI: All Commodities
Correlation
of % moves
-17%
In sync
of periods
65%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
24
These move in the same direction about 65% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~3% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
PPI: All Commodities moves ~13 months before BTC
Watch PPI: All Commodities for an early read on BTC.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
65.2%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-17%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-55% → +26%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
24 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
730
1,360
Normalized
730
1,360
Prepared
25
1,360
Aligned
24
24
Invalid removed
R²(i)
3.0%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
24
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -13 to 13 months.
Selected shift
-13 months
Correlation at this shift
-54%
+36% stronger than no-shift baseline
PPI: All Commodities shifted 13 months later. Reads: "Does Bitcoin (BTC) today line up with PPI: All Commodities 13 months ago?"
10 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-17%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-13 months
-54%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-62%
10 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+25%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-80%
8 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,337
A: 1 / B: 1336
Series A
Bitcoin (BTC)
BTC
Crypto · 730 raw → 25 prepared
Series B
PPI: All Commodities
PPIACO
FRED · 1,360 raw → 1,360 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
4
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0150
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0046
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: crypto-btc_fred-ppiaco_monthly_5y