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Bitcoin (BTC) vs Building Permits
Correlation
of % moves
-24%
In sync
of periods
35%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
24
These move in the same direction about 35% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~6% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Building Permits moves ~6 months before BTC
Watch Building Permits for an early read on BTC.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
34.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-24%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-59% → +19%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
24 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
730
796
Normalized
730
796
Prepared
25
796
Aligned
24
24
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
5.9%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
24
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -13 to 13 months.
Selected shift
-6 months
Correlation at this shift
+55%
+31% stronger than no-shift baseline
Building Permits shifted 6 months later. Reads: "Does Bitcoin (BTC) today line up with Building Permits 6 months ago?"
17 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-24%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-6 months
+55%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-60%
15 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
773
A: 1 / B: 772
Series A
Bitcoin (BTC)
BTC
Crypto · 730 raw → 25 prepared
Series B
Building Permits
PERMIT
FRED · 796 raw → 796 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
4
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.1052
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0015
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: crypto-btc_fred-permit_monthly_5y