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Bitcoin (BTC) vs Nonfarm Payrolls
Correlation
of % moves
+45%
In sync
of periods
65%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-08
24
These move in the same direction about 65% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~21% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
65%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+45%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+5% → +73%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
24 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
730
1,052
Normalized
730
1,052
Prepared
25
1,052
Aligned
24
24
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
21%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
23
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -13 to 13 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+45%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
23 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+45%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+45%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-6%
12 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-55%
8 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,029
A: 1 / B: 1028
Series A
Bitcoin (BTC)
BTC
Crypto · 730 raw → 25 prepared
Series B
Nonfarm Payrolls
PAYEMS
FRED · 1,052 raw → 1,052 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
4
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0024
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0003
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: crypto-btc_fred-payems_monthly_5y