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Bitcoin (BTC) vs Nonfarm Payrolls
Correlation
of % moves
+42%
In sync
of periods
61%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
24
These move in the same direction about 61% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~18% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Nonfarm Payrolls moves ~13 months before BTC
Watch Nonfarm Payrolls for an early read on BTC.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
61%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+42%
Based on % moves
95% CI
N/A
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
24 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
730
1,050
Normalized
730
1,050
Prepared
25
1,050
Aligned
24
24
Invalid removed
Likely range
R²(i)
18%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
23
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -13 to 13 months.
Selected shift
-13 months
Correlation at this shift
+61%
+19% stronger than no-shift baseline
Nonfarm Payrolls shifted 13 months later. Reads: "Does Bitcoin (BTC) today line up with Nonfarm Payrolls 13 months ago?"
10 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+42%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-13 months
+61%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-29%
11 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-60%
9 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,027
A: 1 / B: 1026
Series A
Bitcoin (BTC)
BTC
Crypto · 730 raw → 25 prepared
Series B
Nonfarm Payrolls
PAYEMS
FRED · 1,050 raw → 1,050 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
4
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0022
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0003
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: crypto-btc_fred-payems_monthly_5y