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Bitcoin (BTC) vs USD/HKD Exchange Rate
Correlation
of % moves
+6%
In sync
of periods
46%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-01
493
These move in the same direction about 46% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~0% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently looser than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Mostly stable
The relationship drifts a little but stays in the same neighbourhood.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
46.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+6%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-3% → +15%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
493 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
730
11,375
Normalized
730
11,375
Prepared
730
11,375
Aligned
493
493
Invalid removed
R²(i)
0.4%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
493
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+6%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
492 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+6%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+6%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+10%
65 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+31%
44 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-49%
140 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
11,119
A: 237 / B: 10882
Series A
Bitcoin (BTC)
BTC
Crypto · 730 raw → 730 prepared
Series B
USD/HKD Exchange Rate
DEXHKUS
FRED · 11,375 raw → 11,375 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
18
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0010
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0000
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: crypto-btc_fred-dexhkus_daily_5y