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Bitcoin (BTC) vs Sticky Price CPI
Correlation
of % moves
+40%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
23
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~16% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
BTC moves ~7 months before Sticky Price CPI
Watch BTC for an early read on Sticky Price CPI.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+40%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-3% → +70%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
23 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
730
703
Normalized
730
703
Prepared
25
703
Aligned
23
23
Invalid removed
R²(i)
16%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
22
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 months.
Selected shift
+7 months
Correlation at this shift
+75%
+36% stronger than no-shift baseline
Sticky Price CPI shifted 7 months earlier. Reads: "Does Bitcoin (BTC) today line up with Sticky Price CPI 7 months from now?"
15 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+40%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+7 months
+75%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+50%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+3%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-15%
11 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
682
A: 2 / B: 680
Series A
Bitcoin (BTC)
BTC
Crypto · 730 raw → 25 prepared
Series B
Sticky Price CPI
CORESTICKM159SFRBATL
FRED · 703 raw → 703 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
4
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.1188
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0179
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: crypto-btc_fred-corestickm159sfrbatl_monthly_5y