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Bitcoin (BTC) vs HY Bond Spread
Correlation
of % moves
-33%
In sync
of periods
40%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-20
519
These move in the same direction about 40% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~11% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Mostly stable
The relationship drifts a little but stays in the same neighbourhood.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
40.1%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-33%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-41% → -26%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
519 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
730
786
Normalized
730
786
Prepared
730
786
Aligned
519
519
Invalid removed
R²(i)
11.2%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
519
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-33%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
518 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-33%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-33%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-18%
35 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-5%
46 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-59%
168 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
478
A: 211 / B: 267
Series A
Bitcoin (BTC)
BTC
Crypto · 730 raw → 730 prepared
Series B
HY Bond Spread
BAMLH0A0HYM2
FRED · 786 raw → 786 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
24
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.2669
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0002
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: crypto-btc_fred-bamlh0a0hym2_daily_5y