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Correlation
of values
+94%
In sync
of periods
68%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
808
These move in the same direction about 68% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~88% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
68.1%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+94%
Based on values
95% CI
+93% → +94%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
808 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,000
808
Normalized
1,000
808
Prepared
1,000
808
Aligned
808
808
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
87.8%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
808
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+94%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
808 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+94%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+94%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+26%
17 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-90%
7 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
192
A: 192 / B: 0
Series A
Total Consumer Credit
TOTALSL
FRED · 1,000 raw → 1,000 prepared
Series B
Monetary Base
BOGMBASE
FRED · 808 raw → 808 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0011
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-420.7169
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-bogmbase_fred-totalsl_monthly_5y