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Correlation
of values
+94%
In sync
of periods
57%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
413
These move in the same direction about 57% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~88% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
57%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+94%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
413 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
413
809
Normalized
413
809
Prepared
413
809
Aligned
413
413
Invalid removed
88%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
413
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+94%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
413 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+94%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+94%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+73%
49 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+57%
13 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-63%
51 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
396
A: 0 / B: 396
Series A
Retail Sales
RSAFS
FRED · 413 raw → 413 prepared
Series B
Monetary Base
BOGMBASE
FRED · 809 raw → 809 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0117
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-2165.9994
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-bogmbase_fred-rsafs_monthly_5y