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Correlation
of values
+74%
In sync
of periods
63%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
808
These move in the same direction about 63% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~55% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
63.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+74%
Based on values
95% CI
+71% → +77%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
808 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,049
808
Normalized
1,049
808
Prepared
1,049
808
Aligned
808
808
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
55.0%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
808
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+74%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
808 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+74%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+74%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-15%
11 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-9%
13 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
241
A: 241 / B: 0
Series A
Nonfarm Payrolls
PAYEMS
FRED · 1,049 raw → 1,049 prepared
Series B
Monetary Base
BOGMBASE
FRED · 808 raw → 808 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0416
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-3246.8854
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-bogmbase_fred-payems_monthly_5y