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Correlation
of values
-58%
In sync
of periods
27%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
13
These move in the same direction about 27% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~34% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
27.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-58%
Based on values
95% CI
-86% → -5%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
13 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
808
13
Normalized
808
13
Prepared
808
13
Aligned
13
13
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
33.9%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points
13
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -3 to 3 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-58%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
13 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-58%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-58%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-53%
9 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
795
A: 795 / B: 0
Series A
Monetary Base
BOGMBASE
FRED · 808 raw → 808 prepared
Series B
Existing Home Sales
EXHOSLUSM495S
FRED · 13 raw → 13 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
4
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-268.0797
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
5544260.5926
Linear regression intercept.
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