Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Correlation
of values
+79%
In sync
of periods
46%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
243
These move in the same direction about 46% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~63% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently looser than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Monetary Base moves ~18 months before US Dollar Index
Watch Monetary Base for an early read on US Dollar Index.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
45.9%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+79%
Based on values
95% CI
+74% → +83%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
243 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
807
5,107
Normalized
807
5,107
Prepared
807
245
Aligned
243
243
Invalid removed
R²(i)
62.7%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
243
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
+88%
+9% stronger than no-shift baseline
US Dollar Index shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does Monetary Base today line up with US Dollar Index 18 months from now?"
225 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+79%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
+88%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+33%
65 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+7%
46 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-65%
131 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
566
A: 564 / B: 2
Series A
Monetary Base
BOGMBASE
FRED · 807 raw → 807 prepared
Series B
US Dollar Index
DTWEXBGS
FRED · 5,107 raw → 245 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0059
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
85.4705
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: fred-bogmbase_fred-dtwexbgs_monthly_5y