Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Correlation
of values
+74%
In sync
of periods
45%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
245
These move in the same direction about 45% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~54% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Monetary Base moves ~18 months before US Dollar Index
Watch Monetary Base for an early read on US Dollar Index.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
45%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+74%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
245 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
809
5,139
Normalized
809
5,139
Prepared
809
247
Aligned
245
245
Invalid removed
54%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
245
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
+88%
+14% stronger than no-shift baseline
US Dollar Index shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does Monetary Base today line up with US Dollar Index 18 months from now?"
227 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+74%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
+88%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+13%
68 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+5%
43 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-63%
133 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
566
A: 564 / B: 2
Series A
Monetary Base
BOGMBASE
FRED · 809 raw → 809 prepared
Series B
US Dollar Index
DTWEXAFEGS
FRED · 5,139 raw → 247 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0048
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
84.8851
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-bogmbase_fred-dtwexafegs_monthly_5y