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Correlation
of values
-41%
In sync
of periods
49%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
663
These move in the same direction about 49% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~17% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
USD/JPY Exchange Rate moves ~18 months before Monetary Base
Watch USD/JPY Exchange Rate for an early read on Monetary Base.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
48.9%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-41%
Based on values
95% CI
-47% → -35%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
663 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
807
13,879
Normalized
807
13,879
Prepared
807
665
Aligned
663
663
Invalid removed
R²(i)
16.9%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
663
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
-47%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/JPY Exchange Rate shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does Monetary Base today line up with USD/JPY Exchange Rate 18 months ago?"
645 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-41%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
-47%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+3%
9 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-57%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-9%
19 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
146
A: 144 / B: 2
Series A
Monetary Base
BOGMBASE
FRED · 807 raw → 807 prepared
Series B
USD/JPY Exchange Rate
DEXJPUS
FRED · 13,879 raw → 665 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0153
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
179.5536
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: fred-bogmbase_fred-dexjpus_monthly_5y